Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Election Rally Retraced – More Downside Ahead?
📢 Power Hour Update for Subscribers
📉 Sellers Finally Push New Lows – More Downside Ahead?
🔍 Market Overview: Election Rally Fully Retraced
As expected from our Morning Update, buyers were weak, and prices continued lower. Both $ES and $NQ have now fully retraced the November election rally, confirming the broad weakness we've been tracking.
Now, the question is:
❗ Do sellers press further, or do buyers attempt a recovery into the close?
Momentum is still with the downside, but sellers must continue pushing to prevent another sharp bounce like we saw earlier in the week.
📊 Power Pivots & Market Structure
🔹 $ES Power Pivot: 5731
🔹 $NQ Power Pivot: 20060
These pivots are crucial into the close. If price holds below these levels, expect continued selling into the after-hours session. If buyers reclaim them, we could see a short-term relief bounce.
📌 Key Levels to Watch Into the Close
📉 Downside Targets – Can Sellers Keep Control?
🔻 5715 ($ES) – First Test Zone
Below here, expect 5700-5685 test quickly.
If buyers fail to show up here, we could be looking at a much deeper decline into 5650.
🔻 19850 ($NQ) – Major Support Zone
This is the next key area below today’s lows.
If sellers push below, expect a flush toward 19680-19700.
📈 Potential Relief Bounce – What Buyers Need to Reclaim
🔹 5750-5765 ($ES) – First Major Resistance
Reclaiming 5765 could trigger some short-covering.
If buyers push past here, next upside target is 5807.
🔹 20250-20300 ($NQ) – Key Reversal Zone
Buyers must reclaim this zone to slow the bleeding.
If they fail, expect lower lows soon.
📚 Market Education: When Momentum Matters More Than Levels
Today’s session is a prime example of when momentum and price action override historical support levels. Even though buyers had opportunities to defend key zones, the selling pressure was too strong.
How to trade these conditions?
📌 Don’t fight momentum: If price is grinding lower and levels keep failing, avoid bottom fishing.
📌 Look for weak bounces to short: If price struggles to recover key resistance, it’s an opportunity to join the trend.
📌 Confirmation matters: Wait for strong closes above/below key levels before assuming a reversal.
🔎 Trading Plan & Scenarios for Power Hour
📍 Scenario 1: Continuation Lower (Bearish Setup)
If price stays below 5731 ($ES) and 20060 ($NQ), sellers remain in control.
Targets: 5715 → 5700 ($ES) & 19850 ($NQ).
📍 Scenario 2: Short-Covering Rally (Bullish Setup)
If price reclaims 5750 ($ES) or 20250 ($NQ), expect upside continuation.
Targets: 5765-5807 ($ES) & 20375 ($NQ).
📍 Scenario 3: Chop & Close Near Lows
If price remains between 5731-5750 ($ES) or 20060-20200 ($NQ), expect a slow grind into the close with no clear trend.
📌 Final Thoughts – Can Sellers Finish the Job?
✔ Sellers finally got fresh lows, breaking election rally support.
✔ Momentum favors continued downside—but it’s not a guarantee.
✔ A daily close below 5731 ($ES) and 20060 ($NQ) increases the probability of more selling tomorrow.
🔎 It’s now up to sellers to keep pressing. If they stall, expect buyers to attempt a reversal soon.
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