Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Chop with Consequences: Pressure Builds into Close
📢 Power Hour Update for Subscribers – Chop with Consequences: Pressure Builds into Close
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📊 Power Pivots:
$ES: 5340
$NQ: 18441
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📌 Overview – A Tight Coil Before the Break
Markets have been in choppy back-and-forth action all day, testing both ends of the range without commitment. The price action tells a story of uncertainty, but also accumulated pressure.
We saw the initial breakdown stall at 5295, followed by a weak rally attempt that struggled to recapture 5380—our key squeeze trigger. The battle now centers around these zones with 18500 (NQ) and 5380 (ES) acting as upside breakout caps, and 5315 / 5295 as the last stand for bulls.
It's the final hour of a shortened trading week, and that means any close today sets the tone for next week’s gap. Historically, holiday Fridays (today’s Thursday) often lead to explosive opens after a three-day weekend.
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📌 Key Inflection Zones for the Close
#### 🔻 Downside Watch:
$ES 5315 → 5295:
Failure to hold 5315 and a close below 5295 could trigger a liquidation next week, with sellers emboldened over the long weekend.
Targets below: 5250 → 5238 → 5166.
$NQ 18405 Bias Level:
Acts as key structure. Lose this level on the close and it signals sellers back in control.
Opens path to 18130 and potentially new 2024 lows.
#### 🔼 Upside Watch:
$ES 5380:
Price has failed here multiple times this week. A late-day rally and close above could create a bull trap, historically followed by a gap down on Tuesday.
$NQ 18500:
Must close above to neutralize short-term downside risk. Still not bullish unless above 18800.
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📌 Two Scenarios into the Close
#### 📍 Scenario A: Breakdown into the Close
Price fails to hold 5315, quickly triggers a test of 5295, and closes below.
Expect continued liquidation next week.
Setup: Short retraces into 5340 → target 5250 / 5238 next week.
#### 📍 Scenario B: Fake Rally into 5380
Price squeezes in final hour, tags 5380, but fails to hold into the close.
Watch for gap down Monday and failure at same zone.
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📚 Educational Insight – Why These Closes Matter
Closing price structure into long weekends often leaves a mark:
Institutions reduce risk going into uncertain news cycles.
Trapped positions (especially shorts or longs at extremes) are often unwound the next session.
Power Hour closes give clues about sentiment and hidden positioning.
If you feel uncertain here, there’s nothing wrong with sitting it out. The levels are doing their job—just wait for the break.
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📌 Final Thoughts – Wrap Up the Week Wisely
Watch 5295 / 5380 like a hawk.
Don't overtrade the close. Clean structure today → chaos Tuesday.
Protect profits. Sit tight if unsure.
Enjoy the long weekend—you earned it.