Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Massive Intraday Reversal After Tariff Pause – Is It Just a Bounce or the Start of a New Leg?
📢 Power Hour Update for Subscribers
📌 Massive Intraday Reversal After Tariff Pause – Is It Just a Bounce or the Start of a New Leg?
📊 Market Overview & Open Pivots
Markets opened weak today but caught fire after the announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, sending prices sharply higher mid-session. While this may sound bullish on the surface, traders should remain cautious—details are still emerging, and the market may be reacting to headlines more than substance.
🔹 $ES Open Pivot: 5394
🔹 $NQ Open Pivot: 18878
We are now pushing well above these pivots, which tilts today’s bias bullish, but context matters.
📌 Intraday Narrative: From Weakness to Squeeze
This morning’s session started with continued selling, but as expected, massive rallies of 400–600pts have become routine in this bear market structure. We've discussed this in prior updates: bear markets are known for violent rallies that reset sentiment before resuming their path lower.
Today’s price action is a textbook example:
$ES tapped the 5420s, a level we've had flagged as a magnet for reversion.
Sellers immediately showed up, but price is sticking near 5420, not rejecting cleanly.
This is a red flag for bears and may indicate the market isn’t ready to roll over yet.
🧭 Key Levels & What They Mean
🔑 $ES Zones to Watch
5420s – Our major resistance zone. Sellers must defend this level.
5250s – Strong support now. A close above this reclaims the breakdown structure from last week.
5070–5122 – Former resistance zone; may now act as support on future pullbacks.
🔑 $NQ Zones to Watch
18800 – Key closing level. Bulls want to stay above to build a case for 19050–19220.
18520 – First level where sellers should step in again.
18100 – The base from which today’s rally began. If lost again, it reactivates downside targets.
📈 Trading Plan & Scenarios for the Close
Scenario 1: Bullish Close Holds
A close above 5250s ($ES) and 18800 ($NQ) signals continued momentum into Thursday.
Could extend toward 5475–5500 on $ES and 19100–19220 on $NQ.
Scenario 2: Fade at the Highs
Price stalls at 5420s ($ES) and fails to break cleanly.
Look for exhaustion signals like failed breakouts, shooting stars, or bearish engulfing candles on 15m+.
Targets on pullback: 5324 → 5250 → 5122.
Scenario 3: Bull Trap in Progress
Price breaks 5420s but sharply rejects in final hour.
Daily close back below 5320s would be a major warning that this rally was only a short-covering event.
📚 Educational Insight: Rally Strength in Bear Markets
📌 Bear Market Bounces
These aren’t signs of recovery—they are often the result of position unwinding, not fresh buying.
The stronger and faster the rally, the more suspicious we become as traders. It's usually meant to shake out the weak-handed shorts.
📌 Don’t Confuse Headlines with Fundamentals
A 90-day tariff pause isn't a resolution—it’s a delay. These moves create temporary relief but may not lead to sustained uptrends.
📌 Volume & Confirmation Matter
Watch for volume drop-offs into resistance zones.
If price is rising but volume is thinning, it suggests lack of conviction—possibly setting the stage for reversal.
🔥 Final Thoughts
✅ Above 5250 on $ES and 18800 on $NQ keeps momentum in favor of the bulls.
❗ Failure to break and hold above 5420 signals exhaustion and could mark the top of this rally.
📉 Bear market structure remains intact. Don't chase—let the tape confirm.
⚠️ Thursday is notoriously difficult. Expect wide price swings, fakeouts, and erratic moves.
🧠 Stay focused. Trade the levels. Let price confirm before committing.
🚀 We’ve nailed this rally. Now let’s watch for the next setup—long or short.